Currency Views for the Week 09 Jan – 13 Jan 2023

 

USD/INR

The pair finally broke the narrow range of 81.55-82.92 during last week. As expected possibilities of decent supply or lack of aggressive buying has resulted in the prices easing toward 82.30 which is another crucial level being the trend line support. Only a daily close below 82.30 would suggest further correction towards 81.90. Deeper corrections cannot be expected till we see a close below 82.10. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.90 and 82.70. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

· narrow range broken

· We may not see a runaway in DXY. There can be relief rallies.

· Though the DXY attempted cross over of 105+, it got hammered

· Any spike in DXY need not necessarily impact this pair

· The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10

· The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue

 

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 81.90 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.27.

 

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 87.56. After many weeks of making higher highs the currency pair seem to be hitting the wall around 88.60 and started showing signs of exhaustion. The run up has been too sharp and we need to expect the consolidation. Ensuing week is crucial for the pair to sustain the higher levels or give way for a correction/consolidation phase. We can expect a consolidation between 86.50-88.60. Any breach on either side on a daily closing basis would require re-assessment of risk. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 86.50 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 88.60 or higher if seen. 

 

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair is showing signs of exhaustion and has moved in a range of 97.90-100.12. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 99.48. For the fourth week in a row the weekly closing is seen negative. The Foreign currency pair may find strong resistance at 101.30. There was a sharp fall followed by a quick recovery which indicates that there could be consolidation phase in a range of 97.30 & 101.30. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 101.30 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 97.40 or lower if seen. Any close outside the range of 97.30-101.30 might drag the pair by at least 100 pips in the direction of breach. There would be a need of re-assessment of risk.

 

 

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